By Geoff Zeiss, Director of Technology, Autodesk, Inc.
Experts predict that a build-out of the smart grid will be one of the largest creators of wealth in the decade. One smart grid analyst goes so far as to say that the smart grid is "akin to the transcontinental railroad, the phone system, the interstate highway system and the Internet."
Challenges
It is very easy to see why America needs to do something about the current power grid. The reliability of the existing grid is decreasing as our dependence on it is increasing. According to the Department of Energy, today's electricity system is 99.97 percent reliable, yet still allows for power outages and interruptions that cost Americans at least $150 billion each year - about $500 for every man, woman and child. Consider this:
- The number of outages affecting more than 50,000 people was 41 in 1991-95 and 92 in 2001-2005.
- The US has 9,200 electric generating units with a total of more than 1,000,000 megawatts of generating capacity - most of them were constructed in the 1960s or earlier.
- The current electrical network has 14,000 transmission substations, including 4500 large substations, and the average age of a substation transformer is more than 40 years - beyond their expected life span. Substations are a critical component of our distribution system, and a loss of only 4% of transmission substations would result in a 60% loss of connectivity.
- As to the country's 300,000 miles of transmission lines, since 1982 peak demand for electricity has exceeded transmission growth by almost 25% each year - but only 668 miles of new interstate transmission lines were built between 2000 and 2008.
Although the Congress has not set a national goal for renewable energy, 36 states have Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS). The development of wind energy in the US is increasing at an exponential rate led by Texas, which recently set a new record of 6.7 GW of wind power generation, approximately 20% of the state's total power generation at the time. In other states such as California, a massive expansion of solar power is underway where the Governor has reset the RPS target to 33% renewable energy by 2025. The first proposal for off shore wind energy, off Cape Cod, has been approved and construction is expected to begin this year. To bring this power to consumers, a massive build out of the transmission network will be required. One proposal involved 19,000 new miles of very high voltage transmission lines to bring wind and solar energy to market.
Smart Grid
In addition to renewable energy programs, regulators are encouraging power utilities to reduce peak demand through consumer oriented programs such as smart meters and time-of-use pricing. Many power utilities have already begun pilot deployments of smart meters. Ontario in Canada will have completed deployment of smart meters to every residence and small business by the end of 2010. Power utilities are also deploying technology for demand response that allows the power utility to reduce demand by shutting down non-essential equipment at peak. To enable this type of capability requires a bidirectional network that allows information to flow from the utility to the consumer, as well as information to flow to the utility from the consumer. This requires a build out of new communications networks, typically fiber in more densely populated areas and wireless such as WiMax in rural areas.
To reduce down time, whether brown outs or black outs, power utilities are automating their distribution networks by making installing intelligent network management hardware and software and building out network redundancy. The objective is to make the distribution network smart enough to be able to isolate problem equipment and reconfigure itself to minimize the number of customers affected and to reduce the time required to identify and repair the faulty equipment.
It is estimated that implementing renewable energy and the smart grid to support it will cost between $1.5 and $2 trillion over the next two decades. The current administration has made the smart grid build out a top priority. The 2009 economic stimulus bill includes funding and loan guarantees for modernizing the nation's electricity grid. This total includes $11 billion to finance 3,000 miles of transmission lines, new and upgraded substations to transport renewable energy; as well to finance 40 million smart electric meters in homes.
Aging Workforce
At the same time that utilities are facing an increased workload to accommodate non-emitting energy sources and the smart grid, they are also facing a workforce crunch. Experienced workers are retiring at a faster rate than they can be replaced with trained younger workers. Utilities need new tools to improve productivity to enable them to upgrade and build out the smart grid without increasing their workforce. As banks, low cost airlines, and the German automobile industry, to name just a few of the industries that have turned to IT for solutions have shown, IT technology can dramatically reduce costs while improving quality.
Automating the Design Process
Model-based design, or building information modeling (BIM), together with 3D visualization technology is helping engineers, architects, designers and construction companies automate tasks such as clash detection and quantity takeoff. When combined with project management software, called 4D and 5D modeling, it enables construction companies to model the entire construction process, facilitating scheduling of crews and material delivery.
In the electric power sector, utilities are also adopting these technologies to improve the substation design and redesign process by making it easier for the design teams involved to collaborate. For example, Duke Energy (
Arnold Fry, Duke Energy Transforms Its Substation Design Process, Electric Energy T&D, Nov/Dec 2009) is streamlining the substation design/redesign process through a state-of-the-art design solution, Substation Design Solution (SDS), that enables its designers to create an integrated 3D model of a substation that includes all the equipment, connections, and structural elements. Duke Energy estimates that SDS will reduce overall design time by at least 50%. With the time saved, the company believes that it will be better positioned to meet its customers' evolving capacity and service demands. Additionally, the Duke Energy SDS will come online just in time to support the move to smart grid technology.
As utilities ramp up deployment of smart grids, they are going to devote these new technologies to not only redesigning existing and designing new substations, but also to designing and getting regulatory approval for transmission lines, designing renewable power generation and other facilities for their expanded networks. And this is just the beginning. New data capture techniques such as laser scanning and high resolution oblique imagery is being adopted by utility companies to reduce the time required to develop 3D models of existing facilities. And other utility sectors such as water and wastewater utilities are also moving in the direction of intelligent networks.
Faced with a shrinking and less experienced workforce and the massive effort required to replace our existing networks with intelligent networks over the next two decades, utilities in all sectors will be increasingly looking to model-based design and 3D visualization technology to enable them to meet their customers' expectations and the smart grid challenge.
