NV 2nd & NY 9th Special Elections: Political Anomalies or Bellwether?

Republicans won special elections for House seats in Nevada and New York on Tuesday, Sept. 13.  Former state-Senator Mark Amodei (NV-R) convincingly defeated state Treasurer Kate Marshall (D-NV) by 22 percent in Nevada’s 2nd Congressional District, and entertainment businessman Bob Turner (R-NY) upset state Assemblyman David Weprin (D-NY) by eight points in New York’s 9th Congressional District. In Nevada, political soothsayers like Charlie Cook originally called the race a tossup, citing Marshall’s access to Senator Harry Reid’s political infrastructure and President Obama’s loss of the district by a mere 89 votes in 2008. However, word on the ground from AGC members in Nevada, who secured AGC PAC dollars for now-Rep. Amodei, proved better than the Beltway oracles.  In this former district of appointed Senator Dean Heller (R-Nev.), Republicans outnumbered Democrats by 30,000 registered voters. That edge, along with President Obama’s disapproval rate, proved insurmountable for Marshall. Meanwhile, on the other side of the country, no one, except maybe Bob Turner himself, initially thought a Republican could win a New York City congressional seat. In NY-9th, Democrats hold a 3-to-1 voter registration advantage, and the last time a Republican won there was 1923. The combination of former-Rep. Anthony Weiner’s (D) resignation from the seat amid scandal, President Obama’s position on Israel in the considerably Jewish district, and a confused Weprin campaign provided the perfect storm for Turner’s unforeseen victory. The question remains: Are these A) political anomalies or B) bellwethers? The answer: C, none of the above. Special elections, like these two, provide a political data point at a specific point in time, like elections in November. Their importance rests less with predicting future elections than pinpointing the current political temperature. Only a few months ago, President Obama and Congressional Democrats touted an upset victory over Republicans an upstate New York special election as an astounding denouncement of the Republican agenda, bolstering their own re-election prospects. The fact is, the November 6, 2012 election is 407 days away. Much can change in 407 days. Rest assured, AGC PAC will continue to monitor the political field for construction friendly candidates, like Rep. Mark Amodei, who AGC members support and who support our industry’s federal legislative priorities. For more information, please contact Jimmy Christianson at 202-547-5013 or christiansonj@agc.org.