Voters Opt for the Status Quo

In Tuesday’s elections, voters opted for the status quo where the balance of power will remain shared among President Barack Obama, Senate Democrats and House Republicans.  Unlike the past three elections, which resulted in significant changes in incumbents and party control, the federal government essentially remains unchanged despite a reported $6 billion in advertising spending. Much of the change that did occur in congressional races was a result of the once-in-a-decade redistricting as a result of reapportionment. Heading into Election Day, history was on the side of the president. Since World War II, only three presidents were denied a second term by voters – Ford, Carter and Bush ’41. Incumbency is a powerful factor and it certainly benefited President Obama. When Republicans were enduring a rancorous primary, his campaign was able to build a massive Get-Out-the-Vote (GOTV) ground effort which would eventually drive his supporters to the polls in key battleground states. Obama also benefited from an improving economy. The unemployment rate is down to 7.9 percent from 9.1 percent in January. The number unemployed is down by three million workers over the last two years. Consumer confidence is up 30 points from one year ago. Although the economy still has a long recovery process ahead, voters believe that it is improving and better days are once again within reach. As we saw in the results, much of the president’s coalition remained intact. While votes in Florida are still being counted, Obama carried all the states that backed him in 2008 with the exception of Indiana and North Carolina, as well as Nebraska’s second congressional district. As it stands today, Obama received 303 electoral votes to Romney’s 206. Though the difference in votes is stark, the margin of victory within the battleground states was close. In many of the competitive Senate races where there was no distinct demographic or partisan advantage, the deciding factor was the quality of the candidate. Simply put, the better candidate who ran the better campaign won. This was the case in 2010 when Republicans fielded exceptional candidates (i.e. Ayotte, Portman and Rubio) and is still the case in 2012. At the same time, there were several races where the strongest possible Republican candidate was on the ballot with Heather Wilson (N.M.), Linda Lingle (Hawaii), Linda McMahon (Conn.) and Sen. Scott Brown (Mass.). Maybe in a non-presidential election, the results could have been different, but all fell to their challengers in the four Democratic-leaning states. The Senate will become slightly more Democratic when it convenes in January with 53 Democrats, 45 Republicans and two Independents (expected to caucus with Democrats) and will include 12 new members (8 Democrats, 3 Republicans and 1 Independent). Following redistricting, neither party could claim an outright victory in the number of House seats gained by the redrawing of district boundary lines. However, there was significant change resulting from the new lines at the district-by-district level. A large number of incumbents decided not to run for re-election largely because they faced too steep of a re-election fight, as their district had become more favorable towards the challenging party. A significant shift also occurred in the number of competitive districts that could possibly change hands. Many districts that were once competitive were made much safer for one party or the other. With Republicans in control of the redistricting process in more states than Democrats, the result was that more Republican seats were moved into safer territory. This resulted in Republicans having to defend fewer seats – especially many from the large 2010 freshman class – than they would have if the maps had not changed.  As a result, there is only an expected net gain of +6 seats for Democrats – a far cry from the 25 needed to regain control of the chamber. As it stands now, voters elected 233 Republicans and 193 Democrats in the House. Nine races are still undecided. The freshmen class will include at least 82 Representatives (35 Republicans and 45 Democrats). Republicans certainly will look at the 2012 election as an election of missed opportunities. They could have done better, but Democrats benefited from a slow, but improving, economy and a better set of candidates in key senate races. For more information, please contact David Ashinoff at (202) 547-5013 or ashinoffd@agc.org.