Four Upcoming Special Elections

Massachusetts - Senate Seat Though Sen. John Kerry (D) has yet to begin his confirmation process as Secretary of State, action is already occurring in the upcoming special election to replace him. Rep. Ed Markey (D-Mass.-5) has announced his intention to run and received Sen. Kerry's endorsement, along with endorsements by Vicky Kennedy, wife of the late Sen. Ted Kennedy (D), and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.  Rep. Mike Capuano (D-Mass.-7) objects to the Democratic establishment lining up behind Markey and has reiterated that he is still considering a run in the race.  Rep. Stephen Lynch (D-MA-8), commonly regarded as the most conservative member of the all-Democratic Massachusetts delegation, also says he may run. For the Republicans, former Sen. Scott Brown also has not ruled out entering the race.  However, the race for Governor – likely to be an open seat in 2014 – appears to be a better option for him. Markey appears to be in the driver's seat, at least in the early going of this race. Gov. Deval Patrick (D) will appoint an interim successor once Senator Kerry resigns to serve until a special election can be held.  Last week, Former Congressman Barney Frank (D-Mass.-4) made a public statement saying he is interested in receiving the interim Senate appointment so he may participate in the upcoming fiscal legislative debate – which will take place before the special election is conducted. Gov. Patrick had no reaction to Frank's statement. The governor may come under intense pressure, however, to appoint Rep. Markey. Doing so would virtually clinch the campaign for him. The special election winner will run for a full term in 2014. Illinois - 2nd Congressional District After assuming a tentative lead as the Democratic front runner for the special election to replace resigned-Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. (D), state Sen. Donne Trotter has indicated that he will not become a candidate, leaving the race wide open. Trotter was arrested at O'Hare Airport recently for carrying a weapon. The incident would be detrimental to his congressional campaign in light of the frenzy surrounding the Connecticut school shooting.  Current candidates include former Rep. Deborah Halvorson (D-Ill.-11), who lost to Jackson in the 2012 Democratic primary after losing her 11th District seat to Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R) in 2010. Former Rep. Mel Reynolds (D), who served time in prison for a series of felonies, is also a candidate. So are several state legislators and local Chicago officials. The primary will be held on Feb. 26. Missouri – 8th Congressional District With Rep. Jo Ann Emerson (R) preparing to leave the House in February to become CEO of the National Rural Electric Cooperative Association, individuals are making moves to qualify for the special general election. Each political party will nominate one candidate for the special election.  Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder (R), former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman, state Republican Party executive director Lloyd Smith, and State Rep. Jason Smith have all notified Republican Party officials that they want to be considered for the nomination. The southeastern Missouri 8th district is a heavily Republican seat, so it is almost a certainty that the state party district convention winner will win the special election. Gov. Jay Nixon (D) will set the election schedule when Ms. Emerson officially resigns from her seat. South Carolina – 1st Congressional District Gov. Nikki Haley (R) has set the election schedule to replace new Sen. Tim Scott in the House. The special primary will be held March 19, with a run-off election – should no candidate claim an outright majority – on April 2. The special general election will be May 7. Expect a crowded Republican field, as the eventual GOP nominee will be a heavy favorite to win the May election. Among those seriously considering the race is former Gov. Mark Sanford (R), who left office after he was discovered having an affair. Before being elected Governor, Sanford served in the House for three terms. For more information, please contact David Ashinoff at (202) 547-5013 or ashinoffd@agc.org.