Iowa Senator Tom Harkin Announces Retirement

The open Iowa campaign is expected to include competitive party primaries as well as a tough general election race.  It is not out of the realm of possibility that all four of Iowa's sitting U.S. Representatives could jump into the Senate or Governor's race, but the true field of candidates will take some time to forge, as the Harkin retirement decision came as a bit of a surprise. The Iowa Republican primary could become very interesting.  Five-term Gov. Terry Branstad announced he would not seek the Senate seat. Clearly, with five statewide wins under his belt, he would be the Republicans' strongest candidate.  He is expected to seek re-election to an unprecedented sixth non-consecutive gubernatorial term. Turning to the congressional delegation, the Republican establishment is eager to support Rep. Tom Latham (R-Iowa-3) for a statewide U.S. Senate race.  After winning a bruising paired incumbent general election with veteran Rep. Leonard Boswell (D-Iowa-3) 52-44 percent this past November, Latham has developed an extremely strong political finance base that would serve him well in a statewide contest.  He would be a strong general election candidate. Rep. Steve King (R-Iowa-4), however, is considered of opposite strength to Mr. Latham.  Like the Des Moines area Congressman, Mr. King also had a difficult re-election battle in 2012, but won handily.  He defeated Christie Vilsack – the wife of former Governor and current US Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack (D) – by a relatively strong margin (53-45 percent) in one of the most expensive combined campaigns in the country.  King is a favorite of the grassroots side of the Republican Party and formidable in any primary battle.  He is likely to be a weaker candidate in the general election, however. For the Democrats, 1st District Rep. Bruce Braley is virtually certain to be in one of the two top statewide races.  Reported last week to be considering running for Governor - a key reason many believed Sen. Harkin was sure to run for re-election, otherwise Mr. Braley would have been overtly building support for an open Senate race - the eastern Iowa Congressman will probably run where Branstad does not.  Should the Governor seek re-election, count on Braley to run for the Senate.  Regardless of what becomes of his eventual statewide political plan, it appears clear that Mr. Braley's 1st District House seat will host a hotly contested 2014 open seat campaign. Second District Rep. David Loebsack is less of a statewide possibility.  Though he may consider running, his political apparatus is not nearly as strong as Braley's and would definitely be weaker against the Republicans in a tough statewide open seat campaign. The other Democrat who must be considered more in play today than before the Harkin announcement is former Gov. Chet Culver.  Mr. Culver, who was elected in the Democratic wave year of 2006, is the son of ex-US Senator John Culver.  Like his father who served one lone Senate term, Chet Culver failed to win re-election to his statewide post.  The ex-Governor had already indicated that he is considering another run for his old job but, as the Senate seat has become vacant, his options have potentially grown. For more information, please contact David Ashinoff at (202) 547-5013 or ashinoffd@agc.org.