New Jersey Special Primary Scheduled for Next Tuesday All but Over

The New Jersey special primary election to replace the late Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D) is scheduled for next Tuesday, but according to Quinnipiac University's final poll before the vote, the race is virtually over. When Mr. Lautenberg died in early June and Gov. Chris Christie (R) scheduled the special election to choose a replacement, the early polling showed Newark Mayor Cory Booker with numbers approaching or breaking 50 percent of the Democratic vote, with the other candidates, U.S. Reps. Frank Pallone (D-N.J.-6), Rush Holt (D-N.J.-12), and state House Speaker Sheila Oliver, barely breaking past 10 percent or registering only in single digits. In the just-released Q-Poll (8/1-5; 2,042 N.J. registered voters) the results have barely changed. According to the data, Mr. Booker commands support from 54 percent of the polling sample versus just 17 percent for Rep. Pallone, 15 percent for Rep. Holt, and only 5 percent for Speaker Oliver. With less than a week to go, it's hard to conceive of any scenario that does not result in a Booker victory. Two candidates are running for the Republican nomination – former Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan and practicing physician Alieta Eck. In the aforementioned poll, Republicans favor Lonegan over Eck by a wide margin – 74 to 10 percent – with 13 percent undecided. Forecasting toward the special general election, the Democrat versus Republican results are similar.  A projected Booker-Lonegan pairing appears to be no contest. According to the Q-Poll, Mr. Booker would lead such a campaign 54-29 percent. Booker appears to be defying normal political voting patterns. Typically, mayors perform very poorly in attempting to advance to statewide office, particularly those from a state's largest city. This usually occurs because voters not living in the largest city tend to have a negative opinion of the most populous region and generally do not support the leader of that community for higher office. Mr. Booker is proving to be the exception to that rule. It's even more extraordinary when one sees that Newark, in and of itself, is still not held in high regard as a municipality. It clearly appears that this 2013 Senate special election campaign is evolving into a coronation of Mayor Cory Booker. The voting begins next week with the general election taking place on Oct. 16. For more information, please contact David Ashinoff at (202) 547-5013 or ashinoffd@agc.org.