Over the last two weeks, the U.S. House of Representatives toss-up races were profiled. Today, we look at one of the Senate toss-up races – Sen. Mark Pryor (D) vs. Rep. Tom Cotton (R).
Like many of its southern neighbors, Arkansas has a long history of voting Democratic. Of its 45 governors, only seven have been Republicans, three of which were elected after 1874. This voting pattern is consistent in presidential elections as well. From 1836 to 1968, only one Republican won the state. Things, however, began to change in 1968. Since then, voters chose Republicans in eight of the last 11 – Carter (once) and Clinton (twice) being the exceptions.
The presidential voting patterns changed quickly compared to those at the state and congressional levels. In fact, it took the elections of 2010 and 2012 to really demonstrate the state’s voting shift.
In 2010:
- Republicans win a majority of the congressional delegation;
- A Republican is elected to the U.S. Senate, the first since 1873;
- Voters elect Republicans to three of the seven state-wide offices; and
- Republicans win 40 percent of the state legislative races.
In 2012:
- Republicans are elected to all four U.S. House of Representative seats; and
- Republicans win majorities in both state legislative chambers – the first time in 139 years.
The shift must concern two-term Sen. Mark Pryor (D) who is running for re-election and is no doubt facing the toughest race of his political career.
Pryor is no newcomer to politics. Before his election to the Senate in 2001 with 54 percent of the vote (to the same seat his father held for 18 years), Pryor served as a state legislator and state Attorney General. He was re-elected to the Senate in 2008 with 80 percent of the vote; his only challenger being a member of the Green Party since Republicans opted not to field a candidate.
Fast forward six years and Pryor is fighting for his political life.
Republicans have selected freshman Rep. Tom Cotton. Unlike Pryor, Cotton is a newcomer to politics. Prior to his election to the House last year, Cotton worked as an attorney, management consultant and was a captain in the U.S. Army where he deployed to Iraq and Afghanistan. When an open House seat arose as a result of five-term incumbent Mike Ross’ (D) retirement, Cotton ran and won with 59 percent of the vote against State Senator Gene Jeffress.
Before Cotton’s entrance into the race, Pryor was the favorite. Following his announcement, the race has become a dead heat as recent polls project:
- OnMessage (7/29-30; 600 AR registered voters) gives Cotton a 44-42 percent edge.
- The Polling Company (8/6-7; 600 AR registered voters) scores the battle 45-43 percent in favor of Pryor.
- Harper Polling (8/4-5; 587 AR registered voters) shows the same two point spread, this version 43-41 percent in favor of Cotton.
- Global Strategy Group (8/26-29; 501 registered voters) gives Pryor a 43-37 percent edge.
But the ballot test questions do not give us the most salient clues as to how this campaign will likely unfold. It is clear from examining the questions asked, and the respondents' answers, that the new national healthcare law's implementation can become the over-riding driver of the campaign. Looking ahead through next year, if the Affordable Care Act (ACA or Obamacare) implementation does, in fact, become the determining focal point, Cotton will likely win. Conversely, if the new healthcare law is being implemented in a satisfactory manner and other issues evolve into greater or equal importance, Pryor probably survives.
According to The Polling Company data, 50 percent of the respondent pool would be less likely to support Pryor because of his vote in favor of the ACA, versus the 40 percent who answered more likely. The OnMessage totals are starker. According to their data tables, 55 percent would be more likely to support Cotton because he voted to repeal Obamacare, contrasting with 33 percent who say they are more likely to support Pryor because he voted for Obamacare.
Most analysts believe that the public view of the new healthcare law will deteriorate over the next year as more people understand how the legislation will directly affect them. Therefore, Cotton must use his campaign to drive the healthcare program image to the negative extreme. In 2014, if Arkansans go into the polling places and vote the Senate race as a referendum on Obamacare in order to send a message to Washington, Cotton stands a strong chance of winning. Cotton must also paint Pryor as an incumbent who no longer represents Arkansas voters. In addition to using support for the health care law, Cotton must also highlight other liberal aspects of Pryor’s legislative record like support of card check.
For his part, Pryor needs to expand the agenda and downplay the healthcare program's effects. If Pryor can cast Cotton as being so outside the mainstream of even his own conservative political party, and as a congressman who consistently votes against government programs that help the average Arkansan, then the odds increase for incumbent retention.
Both parties' strategies for this race are transparent and obvious. Whoever can implement their specific strategy the best, while accounting for the national political mood, will likely prevail. The Arkansas Senate race will be one to watch.
For more information, please contact David Ashinoff at (202) 547-5013 or ashinoffd@agc.org. 