Former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown (R) is now an official Senate candidate in New Hampshire. Two public polls are currently showing a varying lead for incumbent Jeanne Shaheen (D).
Public Policy Polling, conducting a survey for the League of Conservation Voters (4/7-8; 1,034 NH registered voters), finds Sen. Shaheen ahead by 49-41 percent, significantly beyond the margin of polling error. The two candidates' favorability scores are vastly different, however. Sen. Shaheen has a 47:46 percent positive to negative job approval ratio, whereas Mr. Brown records a poor 35:49 percent rating.
In a similar time frame, the University of New Hampshire (4/1-9; 507 NH adults; 387 registered voters), finds a tighter 45-39 percent ballot test, and much different favorability scores for both individuals. According to UNH, the Senator has a much better 49:35 percent job approval index, and Mr. Brown records a significantly improved 39:29 percent positive to negative personal favorability score.
Though the ballot tests are in the same relative range, the favorability ratings for both candidates are widely divergent. Public Policy Polling typically skews negative on most job and personal favorability ratios, so it is not surprising that they found a similar result in this case. Though UNH has not proven to be a particularly reliable pollster, their favorability ratings seem more believable than the consistently upside down scores that PPP routinely records.
The two polls are telling us that this campaign has the strong potential to become highly competitive. Any outcome is possible here in 2014.
For more information, please contact David Ashinoff at (202) 547-5013 or ashinoffd@agc.org.
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