Tuesday’s Primary Results

The biggest night of the primary election season to date unfolded on Tuesday. Talk of possible upsets had been swirling around for weeks, but incumbents and front-runners in open seat races were the clear winners. Arkansas Neither of the two major party U.S. Senate candidates had primary opposition. What is expected to be a brutal contest between Sen. Mark Pryor (D) and Rep. Tom Cotton (R-AR-4) is now officially underway. In the Governor's race, both ex-Reps Asa Hutchinson (R-AR-3) and Mike Ross (D-AR-4) had little trouble securing their respective nominations. This campaign, too, will likely continue in the toss-up realm all the way to Election Day. In the state's two open House races, businessman French Hill captured the Republican nomination with 55 percent of the vote. Mr. Hill will begin as a slight favorite over the uncontested Democratic nominee, Patrick Henry Hays, the former North Little Rock mayor. Rep. Tim Griffin (R-AR-2), leaving the seat to run for Lt. Governor won the party nomination last night by securing an absolute majority. Griffin scored a solid 64 percent over two GOP opponents. He will face state Highway Commissioner John Burkhalter (D) in the general election. Turning to Mr. Cotton's open 4th Congressional District, consensus candidate James Lee Witt (D) will face state House Majority Leader Bruce Westerman (R) in the general election. Expect this race to be competitive. Westerman defeated energy executive Tommy Moll 54-46 percent, despite being significantly outspent (almost 2:1). Georgia As late polling predicted, the GOP primary process is now coming down to a two-way contest between businessman David Perdue, who registered 30 percent, and Rep. Jack Kingston (R-GA-1), who nipped former Secretary of State Karen Handel, 26-22 percent. Reps. Phil Gingrey (R-GA-11) and Paul Broun (R-GA-10) registered only 10 percent apiece. The run-off winner will face Democratic nominee Michelle Nunn who captured her primary with 75 percent of the vote. The run-off promises to be a bruising affair. Both will be well funded, but the geographical focus will now shift to the Atlanta metro area, where more than 65% of the run-off votes will likely be cast. Aside from the U.S. Senate contest, major competition occurred in five of the state's 14 congressional districts. Beginning with Mr. Kingston's open 1st District, as predicted, state Sen. Buddy Carter and ex-Army Ranger Bob Johnson will advance to the July 22 run-off election. Carter placed first with 36 percent; Johnson was second, posting 23 percent. The winner will likely capture the seat in November, as the Democratic field is weak. In the 4th District, incumbent Rep. Hank Johnson secured his Democratic re-nomination with a relatively close 54-46 percent win over DeKalb County Sheriff Thomas Brown. Mr. Johnson is assured of re-election in the fall because he is unopposed in the general election. Rep. Paul Broun's open seat also yielded a GOP primary that will result in the top two finishers advancing to the 7/22 run-off election. Baptist pastor and radio talk show host Jody Hice (R) led the pack with 33 percent, just 190 votes ahead of businessman Mike Collins, son of former Rep. Mac Collins (R-GA-3). The eventual Republican nominee faces attorney Ken Dious (D) in the general election, in a race that shouldn't be any contest for the GOP standard bearer. Rep. Phil Gingrey's (R-GA-11) district will be filled either by state Sen. Barry Loudermilk or former Rep. Bob Barr (R-GA-7). Both men qualified for the run-off by placing first and second in the field of six candidates. The Democrats did not even file a candidate here, so the July 22 run-off contest will select the next Congressman. Loudermilk was first with 37percent, as compared to Mr. Barr's 26 percent. In the southeastern 12th District, businessman and former congressional candidate Rick Allen (past president of AGC Georgia) scored a major coup by impressively winning the Republican nomination outright with 54 percent of the vote against four opponents. Mr. Allen will now oppose veteran Rep. John Barrow (D) in what could become a close race. Idaho Gov. Butch Otter (R) found himself in a more difficult primary campaign than he may have expected, but still secured re-nomination with just a 53-42 percent win over Republican state Senator Russ Fulcher. The Governor will now face Boise School Board President A.J. Balukoff in the general election. Mr. Otter is a prohibitive favorite to win a third term. In the House, in what to date has been the premier primary challenge to an establishment incumbent, Rep. Mike Simpson (R-ID-2) easily defeated attorney Bryan Smith 62-38 percent. With some of Smith's early national support pulling out of the race with several weeks to go, the battle became Simpson's to lose and he performed well. The Congressman will now face former Rep. Richard Stallings (D), who is attempting a comeback. Kentucky Also as expected, U.S. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell racked up a strong primary victory (60-35 percent) over investor Matt Bevin, and secures his Republican Senatorial nomination for the sixth time. However, with over a third of the GOP base supporting Bevin, Sen. McConnell will have to better secure his base before engaging the Democrats. Outside groups, such as the Senate Majority Fund and the Madison Project, among others, already announced that they will unify behind McConnell for the general election, which should go a long way to helping the Senator strengthen his base. Mr. McConnell will now square off against Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes (D), who won her party's nomination with 77 percent of the vote, in what is expected to be a hard fought campaign. All polls project the pair within two points of one another. National trends will go a long way to deciding this race, considering McConnell's position as the top Senate Republican. Oregon The statewide races here are attracting the most attention, since the congressional campaigns do not appear competitive in November. In the U.S. Senate race, first-term incumbent Jeff Merkley (D) will face surgeon Monica Wehby, who defeated state Rep. Jason Conger and three other Republicans with 53 percent of the vote. The incumbent registered an overwhelming 93 percent in his Democratic primary. If the Governor's race between three-term incumbent John Kitzhaber (D) and state Rep. Dennis Richardson (R) becomes competitive (Richardson took 65 percent in last night's primary against five GOP opponents), then the Senate race could also come into play. Pennsylvania The big Keystone State race nominated Democratic businessman Tom Wolf for Governor, as expected. He defeated Rep. Allyson Schwartz (D-PA-13), state Treasurer Rob McCord, and former state EPA Director Katie McGinty by an overwhelming 58-17-17-8 percent, respectively. Mr. Wolf now becomes the favorite to unseat Gov. Tom Corbett (R), who is the most vulnerable Republican Governor in the country. In the open 6th Congressional District, two consensus candidates in their respective parties, Chester County Commissioner Ryan Costello (R) and physician and two-time US House nominee Dr. Manan Trevedi (D) face each other in the politically marginal 6th Congressional District. Because Trevedi has already lost this district twice to retiring Rep. Jim Gerlach (R), Costello begins the general election in the favorite's position. Eighth District Congressman Mike Fitzpatrick (R) will be challenged by former CIA analyst Kevin Strouse, who edged businesswoman Shaughnessy Naughton 51-49 percent in the Democratic primary. Rep. Fitzpatrick is favored to retain his seat, but PA-8 is a marginal district and national political trends will play a major role in the outcome. House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee Chairman Bill Shuster (R) faced two Republican opponents, but neither was able to mount a serious individual challenge. Together, however, they captured 47percent of the vote. Mr. Shuster will easily secure re-election in November. Freshman Rep. Keith Rothfus (R) will defend his seat for the first time against psychologist Erin McClelland, who won the Democratic nomination last night. The Congressman will be heavily favored for a second term. In the hotly contested 13th District Democratic primary, for the right to succeed Rep. Allyson Schwartz who was defeated in the gubernatorial campaign, state Rep. Brendan Boyle was a huge winner, dashing any comeback hope that former Rep. Marjorie Margolies held. Boyle defeated Margolies by a 41-27 percent margin. Mr. Boyle will now have an easy run in November and come to Congress as a member of the freshman class in January. For more information, please contact David Ashinoff at (202) 547-4733 or ashinoffd@agc.org.