Primary Results from Saturday’s and Tuesday’s Elections

Connecticut Not much competitive action in the Connecticut primary, as none of the five House incumbents faced a challenger.  In the Governor's race, former U.S. Ambassador Tom Foley (R), scored a 56-44 percent Republican primary victory over state Senate Minority Leader John McKinney.  The latter is the son of the late former U.S. Rep. Stewart McKinney (R-CT-4).  Hawaii Though polling in the U.S. Senate race suggested that neither appointed Sen. Brian Schatz or Rep. Colleen Hanabusa (D-HI-1) held substantial leads heading into Saturday's Democratic primary, the campaign finished much differently than predicted. Hurricane Iselle struck the islands just days before the polls opened, causing a delay – which could last up to a couple weeks – in declaring winners of the primary elections.  Though Sen. Schatz has a 1,659 vote lead, two precincts on the Big Island of Hawaii remain to be counted.  His small lead, however, will likely hold up. The other interesting Hawaii Democratic primary story is Gov. Neil Abercrombie's defeat.  Pearl Harbor area state Sen. David Ige, who had been leading in virtually every poll, went on to complete his improbable primary victory with a margin that exceeded 2:1.  The unofficial final tally gives Ige a 67-31 percent landslide win.  He now faces Republican former Lt. Gov. Duke Aiona and ex-Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann, a former Democrat with a long history of battling Abercrombie, now running as an Independent.  The three-way contest actually makes Aiona a viable choice even in heavily Democratic Hawaii.  Abercrombie becomes the first Hawaiin Governor since 1962 to lose re-election, and the first ever in Aloha State politics to be denied re-nomination. Minnesota In the Senate race, as expected, finance executive Mike McFadden cruised to a landslide victory in the Republican primary, defeating four Republican opponents, including state Rep. Jim Abeler, with an impressive 72 percent of the vote.  McFadden now faces first-term Sen. Al Franken (D). Since the nomination process is finally over, the race can now begin to take shape.  Many on the Republican side believe the Minnesota Senate campaign is a sleeper race and could become competitive as we approach Election Day.  If the Republicans catch a national wave, this seat could conceivably move toward the GOP.  Sen. Franken, however, is the decided favorite and any such wave will have to be substantial in order to carry this challenger to victory. In the open 6th District, also as expected, former gubernatorial nominee and Republican ex-state legislator Tom Emmer cruised to a 73 percent GOP nomination victory for the right to succeed retiring Rep. Michele Bachmann (R).  The seat had played relatively competitively during Bachmann's tenure, but that likely has more to do with the incumbent's controversial nature than with the district's voting patterns. No surprises were found in the other House races. Wisconsin Results were also quiet in Wisconsin, with only one race worth watching.  Retiring Rep. Tom Petri (R-WI-6) leaves a seat he has held since winning a special election in 1979 and now will likely be replaced by state Sen. Glenn Grothman. The Senator defeated his legislative colleague Joe Leibham and state Assemblyman Duey Stroebel, and a minor fourth candidate by a 38-30-28-4 percent margin.  Grothman has the inside track against the consensus Democratic candidate, Winnebago County Executive Mark Harris.  The 6th District seat is reliably Republican, but Democrats maintain hope that Harris can become a competitive candidate. The other races, including what should be a hot battle for Governor between incumbent Scott Walker and Democratic challenger Mary Burke, were anything but competitive in Tuesday’s primary. For more information, please contact David Ashinoff at (202) 547-5013 or ashinoffd@agc.org.