Democrats Drop Out to Back Independent Candidates

Alaska Alaskan Democrats and Independents just approved a gubernatorial campaign deal that will change the 2014 general election turnout dynamic, and at least indirectly affect the toss-up U.S. Senate campaign between Sen. Mark Begich (D) and former Attorney General and Natural Resources Department director Dan Sullivan (R). The four Democratic and Independent gubernatorial and Lt. Governor candidates (in Alaska, the candidates for Lt. Governor win individual nominations, but then become part of a party gubernatorial ticket during the general election) have negotiated an arrangement to combine their candidacies. The agreement means candidate Bill Walker will continue his bid for Governor on the Independent ballot line. The Democratic gubernatorial nominee, former Alaska Permanent Fund director Byron Mallott, agrees to end his campaign and joins the Independent ticket, with the official blessing of the Democratic Party, as the Lt. Governor nominee. Democratic and Independent Lt. Governor nominees Hollis French and Craig Fleener, respectively, are voluntarily terminating their candidacies. Polling consistently showed that Gov. Sean Parnell (R), whose job approval numbers have lagged, would win a three-way contest against Walker and Mallott, but is essentially even with this new unified Independent ticket. It's clear the Democratic Party leadership and activists are doing what they can to defeat Gov. Parnell, even to the point of relinquishing their own party candidacy. It remains to be seen if their ploy works, but it does change the political dynamics in Alaska, at least for the short term. Oklahoma Yesterday, Kansas Democratic Senatorial nominee Chad Taylor ended his candidacy, thus giving competitive Independent Greg Orman a better chance of unseating Sen. Pat Roberts (R). Public Policy Polling conducted a post-August 5th primary survey (8/14-17; 903 KS likely voters) and found Mr. Roberts leading a three-way race, but attracting only 32 percent support. More significantly, the incumbent trailed Orman by 10 percentage points, 33-43 percent, when the two were isolated. This, and the results from private internal polling, were key factors in Taylor making his exit decision. Though the Democrats give up the opportunity of converting the Kansas seat for one of their own party members, they are coalescing with a political soul mate. Orman toyed with the idea of previously entering a Democratic statewide primary, but chose against doing so. Therefore, should he be successful in November and particularly achieving victory with regular party activist and donor help, Orman would certainly join the Senate Democratic caucus to deny the GOP a critical seat and allow his allies to maintain their majority. The move definitely moves the race closer to toss-up status. The Democrats are now forcing the GOP to spend serious resources to protect a state that should be an easy hold. The move enhances the party's ability to protect its tenuous majority, even though the Democrats have lost their own party nominee. For more information, please contact David Ashinoff at (202) 547-5013 or ashinoffd@agc.org.