The topic de jour of the national media, political scientists, and pundits is Donald Trump. The bombastic businessman’s rise in the polls has defied political logic and left many Washington insiders puzzled. Conventional wisdom would dictate that the campaign was doomed following Trump’s critical and unrefined remarks on immigrants, Sen. John McCain’s (R-Ariz.), and Fox News anchor and GOP debate moderator Megyn Kelly. However, RealClearPolitics polling average shows Mr. Trump leading nationally as well as in the early voting states of Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina.
With a double digit lead in most of the polls, is it fair to classify him as the GOP frontrunner? According to RealClearPolitics Senior Elections Analyst Sean Trende, the answer is no. He wrote, “While it is wrong to dismiss any analyst who takes Trump seriously, it is likewise wrong – indeed it is probably more wrong – to look at polling today and conclude that Trump is the favorite for the nomination. Being the frontrunner is about more than just the polls – factors like fundraising and party support, do matter – and we have plenty of examples of late summer/fall boomlets in primaries that ultimately fall apart.”
Trende supports his assertion by noting that in the summers of 2003, 2007, and 2011, polling showed different candidates leading than those who went on to claim their party’s nomination. In 2003, then-Sen. Joe Lieberman (D-Conn.) led the Democratic field with 18 percent, but lost to then-Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.). Four years later, then-Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-N.Y.) and then-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani were atop their party’s polls. Neither went on to win the nomination, losing out to then-Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) and Sen. McCain (R-Ariz.). Finally in 2011, then-Gov. Rick Perry (R-Texas) was ascending the polls having gone from 5 percent in June to 32 percent in September only to fall to former Gov. Mitt Romney (R-Mass.).
Trende also wrote, “The point is, this is historically a “shopping period” for primary voters. They try out different flavors, explore their strengths and weaknesses, and . . . abandon them at the drop of a hat.”
While Trump enjoys a lead of 17-26 percent in national polls, it is important to remember that three-quarters or more of Republicans are picking someone else. With 16 other candidates in the race, the “Not Trump” vote is easily diluted.
In the coming months the field will winnow itself down, giving rise to a clearer front runner. This may happen sooner rather than later with the recent revelations that Gov. Perry’s campaign has stopped paying its staff. Trump holds a plurality of the vote now, but that may become very difficult for him to sustain when voters, who are currently split, unite behind a handful of candidates.
For more information, please contact David Ashinoff at ashinoffd@agc.org or (202) 547-5013.