As expected, Donald Trump placed first in the Nevada Caucuses scoring just under 46 percent of the attender preference; his strongest performance to date. Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) was second with 24 percent, followed by Texas Sen. Ted Cruz at 21 percent. Dr. Ben Carson and Gov. John Kasich (R-Ohio) trailed with 5 and 4 percent, respectively. Though he didn’t emphasize Nevada at all, Gov. Kasich finishing dead last and behind Dr. Ben Carson cannot be good for his pre-Ohio staying power.
Nevada apportions 30 delegates on a straight proportional basis with a 0 percent vote threshold. With these percentages, Trump is expected to commit 14 delegate votes, Rubio seven, Cruz six, Carson two, and Kasich one. The small totals mean that Nevada is only partially determinative regarding GOP nomination direction.
Mr. Trump didn’t score a knockout punch, but does add incrementally to his delegate advantage and is the undisputed leader heading into the twelve-state Super Tuesday bonanza on March 1. Those contests, mostly in the south, will go a long way towards deciding whether Trump can best position himself to capture the party nomination. To win the nomination, a candidate must secure a delegate majority, meaning 1,237 of the 2,472 total Republican convention delegate votes.
Under the present vote and delegate commitment ratios it appears that no candidate, including Trump, will have the necessary delegate votes to effectively clinch the nomination. Therefore, assuming both Cruz and Rubio remain able to attract significant delegate support, having a brokered Republican convention still looms as a possibility.
For more information, please contact David Ashinoff at ashinoffd@agc.org or (202) 547-5013.