Both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump delivered strong performances in their respective Super Tuesday primaries and caucuses, but neither could land the knockout punch for which they hoped. At least for Republicans, one mathematically viable scenario remains to fall into a contested convention. It appears we will know on March 15.
Ms. Clinton continued her dominance in the south, but surprisingly stumbled in Oklahoma. She won eight of the 11 Democratic voting states on Tuesday. Sen. Bernie Sanders, in addition to his 51-41 percent win in Oklahoma, took his home state of Vermont, and the Colorado and Minnesota caucuses.
Ms. Clinton was again dominant in the states with large African American populations and it is probable that she once more attracted approximately 90 percent support within the black community. Sanders, however, is in the superior position among white Democratic voters. Massachusetts was the only northern state that Ms. Clinton carried, but it was close. She finished with 50.3 percent of the popular vote.
The unofficial projected Democratic delegate count, according to the New York Times, finds Ms. Clinton with 1,001 regular and super delegates versus Sen. Sanders’ 371. Democratic National Committee rules require a nominee to secure 2,383 delegate votes.
Mr. Trump took seven of the 11 Republican voting states; Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) placed first in three, his home state of Texas, Oklahoma, and Alaska, while Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) was victorious in the Minnesota Caucus. Trump’s strongest percentage, 48.9 percent, came in Massachusetts. Despite placing first in seven voting entities, he broke the 40 percent threshold in only two places: the aforementioned Massachusetts, and Alabama, 43.8 percent.
Protecting the delegate counts and factoring the voting thresholds per state to qualify for delegate apportionment, Trump has approximately 320 delegate votes with Cruz trailing at 225, and Rubio possessing 113 committed regular delegates. Gov. John Kasich follows with 23, and Dr. Ben Carson has eight. The party officer delegates in most states, as well as several small state delegations cumulatively totaling 247 votes, are not included in these projections since they are unbound, or free agents and similar in stature to Democratic super delegates, at the convention.
Of the committed delegates, Trump has secured 46.4 percent of the available delegates. It appears the March 15 primary day will likely tell the tale. Should Trump win the key winner-take-all states of Florida (99 delegates) and Ohio (66 delegates), he will likely be unstoppable. On the other hand, if his three major opponents strategically form an alliance, and allow Rubio to challenge Trump virtually one-on-one in Florida, Kasich to have an unencumbered chance in Ohio, and Cruz the same in North Carolina (also on March 15), and they successfully top the leader in all of those places, the brokered convention becomes a clear reality.
For more information, please contact David Ashinoff at ashinoffd@agc.org or (202) 547-5013.